wipe was Z: in three countries won the revolution of the population in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya (apart from an army base in the middle of Tripoli, Libya is now exempted). Iraq has in my opinion less likely to develop truly democratic structures, in spite of its elections and the massive U.S. support, but could be considered as "three-quarter free." So those are four states, and one could - despite the systematic discrimination of Arab Bevökerung also the Arab population of Israel as a "three-quarter free" classified, what might seem against the backdrop of Israel's occupation of activity and its consequences for the affected population may be a bit cynical - but true. Also, Lebanon has already made quite wide steps on the road to democracy, despite strong internal tensions and greatly divided the population there after all, freedom of press and a functioning parliamentary system.
ls A first conclusion one could draw, but perhaps prematurely: A democratic liberation that comes from the middle of the population, has better prospects as the "military exemption," as she was tried in Iraq. In many respects, at any rate, the Bush doctrine has failed, and the contempt for Al Jazeera from the supposedly freedom-setting on U.S. neo-cons. Iraq and the democratic (and as a defense against weapons of mass destruction) meant occupation of Iraq has by no means the democratization of the Arab cause, much faster.
ls A second conclusion one could say that the experiment is a failed brutalstmöglichen suppression of a democracy movement in Libya and other countries.
I n Algeria, Jordan, Yemen and Bahrain, perhaps in Morocco (where I reporting interpret correctly), it will come to a kind of "democratization from above", especially in Algeria are here just made great strides. Those who stay on the democratic developments in the Arab countries at present still excluded? If I am right, it is only a few small states like Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Mauritania - and to Saudi Arabia. Arab Democratic Union could in a few years are within reach and are a great partner for the EU.
ls A third conclusion - and these findings, I find it particularly important - one must recall the importance of a democratically oriented press and media sector. Without Al Jazeera would be new and have been for many unexpected democratic developments in Arab countries is hardly possible.
U nd paradoxical as it may be: A far distant democratic regime, namely Qatar, and the will to progress by Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Al Jazeera and the democratization of Arabia made it possible. Presumably it was his military training in the UK, which made him the democratizer. And even here the presumption is founded, the training of many Egyptian and Tunisian military in Germany and the United States was an important factor in bringing the military in these countries has taken the side of the democracy movement.
Z ack to the original question: Which Arab state's next? I think the second wave of Arab democratization will be the above-mentioned idea of "democratization from above", and we will see in the next few years, a kind of "democratic arms race" of the Arab countries - a competition to see who the best and fastest advance towards democracy makes!
I guess ch, the oil-rich small states will form in this democratic race approximate an exception, also Saudi Arabia - but will win in these states, the modern and democratic-oriented sheikhs and rulers of weight. So we will hear in the next few years, from Saudi Arabia, good news. And Iran?
D he is also. I guess that in at least two years to go.
+ + + Preliminary report: Tonight is the Comical Gutti Ph.D. from the University of Bayreuth withdrawn in a summary trial - and
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